Avengers (Dis)assemble? Climate Awareness, Responsibility Attribution, and Superpower Perceptions in Africa

Abstract Does climate awareness shape how citizens evaluate global powers? Drawing on Afrobarometer data from 38 African countries (N = 24,674), we show that climate awareness disassembles public opinion into a two-dimensional attribution mechanism involving cause and remedy that shapes soft-power evaluations. Climate-aware Africans rate China above the United States, penalizing the US for its climate record rather than the European Union, reflecting a clear climate-cognition mechanism. The US–China penalty is universal in direction but conditional in magnitude: it is deepest among consistent externalisers and shallowest among sovereign adapters. Robust placebo test confirms climate awareness significantly amplifies the US–China gap (b = −0.019, p < 0.001) but exhibits no effect on the EU–China gap (b = −0.0002, p = 0.97). Ultimately, American soft power deficits across Africa remain structural relative to China, demonstrating an overall magnitude depending upon public attribution frameworks regarding global climate responsibility and action.