Digital marketing analytics capabilities and firm performance: Cross-cultural evidence from emerging markets

Digital marketing analytics capabilities (DMACs) are widely promoted as a performance driver in emerging markets, yet whether their returns are universal or context-dependent remains unclear. Drawing on the resource-based view (RBV), dynamic capabilities theory, and institutional theory, this study tests a sequential mediation model in which DMACs shape firm performance through market orientation and market responsiveness, with institutional context (digital infrastructure, governance quality, talent availability, and market maturity) moderating this pathway. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) on survey and financial data from 641 firms across Ghana, India, China, and Mexico, the model achieved acceptable fit and explained 58 percent of the variance in firm performance (R² = 0.58). Market orientation and market responsiveness sequentially mediated the DMAC–performance relationship, accounting for 42 percent of total effects. Institutional context significantly moderated the direct effect, which ranged from β = 0.15 in low-institutional-quality contexts to β = 0.41 in high-institutional-quality contexts—a 2.7-fold difference. These findings indicate that identical analytics investments yield systematically different returns depending on institutional readiness, challenging assumptions of universal capability effectiveness and offering emerging-market firms and policymakers a more conditional basis for analytics strategy.