The Impact of the United States Tariff Shock on ASEAN Exports

The escalation of United States protectionism has triggered global economic fragmentation, positioning ASEAN strategically as a supply chain buffer and an alternative manufacturing base outside China. This study quantitatively measures the impact of United States tariff shocks on the bilateral export value of ASEAN countries to the United States over the 2015–2024 period using a gravity model specification estimated via Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) with pair and year fixed effects. The analysis reveals that United States tariff policies have a positive and significant impact, with ASEAN exports to the United States in the post-tariff period recorded at 32.95% higher compared to the baseline scenario. These findings confirm substantial trade diversion, where tariff barriers on Chinese products have shifted United States import demand to ASEAN.