ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE STRUCTURE OF GLOBAL TRADE: FROM EFFICIENCY REVOLUTION TO PARADIGM RECONSTRUCTION

Artificial intelligence (AI) is generating systemic changes in international trade that are deepening over time. Drawing on recent reports from the WTO, UNCTAD and OECD as well as relevant academic research, this paper analyzes the impact of AI on the structure of global trade at three levels: efficiency gains through reduced trade costs and expanded participation of small and medium-sized enterprises; transformation of trade composition through the expansion of cross-border trade in services enabled by generative AI; and the development divide arising from the uneven distribution of digital infrastructure and computing capacity. The study finds that AI's potential to stimulate trade is substantial — global trade could grow by 34–37 percent by 2040 — yet the distribution of these gains depends heavily on countries' digital readiness and policy choices. The paper also discusses emerging challenges facing trade rules, including the classification of AI goods and services, cross-border data flows and intellectual property.