ROAD TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE AND NIGERIA’S AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT

The study analyzed the impact of transport infrastructure on agricultural output in Nigeria for the period of 1990-2022. The data were collected through secondary sources on Agricultural Output (AGO), Road infrastructure (ROI), Mileage of Road constructed (MLR), Quality of Road (QUR), Government Expenditure on Agriculture (AGX) and Agricultural Credit Scheme (AGCS). The study employed Autoregressive Distributed lagged Model (ARDL-ECM) with the result that error correction model (ECM) deviations from the long-run equilibrium are rectified quickly, with a p-value of 0.0000 and a negative and highly significant result. It revealed that the speed of adjustment is about 69% of the previous period's disequilibrium is brought back into equilibrium. Findings revealed that ROI and QUR have a negative significant impact on Nigeria’s AGO, both in the short run and in the long run, respectively. Also, mileage of road has a positive significant impact and a positive insignificant impact on Nigeria’s AGO in the short run and the long run, respectively. However, GEA has a positive significant impact on Nigeria’s agricultural output, both in the short run and in the long run, respectively, while AGCS has a negative insignificant and a positive significant impact on Nigeria’s agricultural output in the short run and long run, respectively. Furthermore, road infrastructure has a significant impact on agricultural output in Nigeria. Then, the study recommended that private individuals and federal government, through Federal Ministry of Works should invest massively on high quality road infrastructure across the country, both in rural and urban areas, particularly in rural areas, that will serve for a long period of time. Finally, government should sustain current government expenditure on agriculture and also make deliberate effort to increase government future spending on agriculture with a view to increasing agricultural output in Nigeria.