The Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategy on Rice Productivity: Evidence from East Java Indonesia

Climate change poses significant challenges to rice farming by increasing production risks associated with unpredictable weather and changing rainfall patterns. Farmers' adaptation strategies may help reduce these risks, but their adoption intensity and relationship with rice productivity require further investigation. This study examines the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies, the socioeconomic factors associated with high-intensity adaptation, and the relationship between adaptation intensity and rice productivity in Malang Regency, East Java, Indonesia. A quantitative approach was employed using primary data from 100 rice farmers collected between November 2024 and April 2025. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, probit regression, and propensity score matching (PSM). The results indicate that the use of pest-resistant or climate-tolerant varieties was the most widely adopted adaptation strategy (67%), followed by crop diversification (61%). Overall, 73% of respondents implemented three or more adaptation strategies. Probit regression results show that access to climate information was positively and significantly associated with high-intensity adaptation (p = 0.002), while farming experience was positively associated with adaptation intensity at the 10% significance level (p = 0.057). PSM estimates indicate that high-intensity adaptation was associated with an average productivity difference of 1,167.28 kg/ha relative to the matched control group, with a t-statistic of 2.59. These findings highlight the importance of improving farmers' access to climate information and strengthening their capacity to implement appropriate combinations of adaptation strategies. Agricultural extension services and climate information dissemination should be strengthened to support resilient and productive rice farming in Malang Regency. Keywords: climate change adaptation; adaptation intensity; rice productivity; probit regression; propensity score matching; Malang Regency.