Deep learning–based quantification of CT changes after 1 year of pirfenidone treatment as a prognostic marker in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Abstract Objectives To evaluate the prognostic value of changes in deep learning–based CT quantification following 1 year of pirfenidone treatment in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Materials and methods This study included patients with IPF who received at least 1 year of pirfenidone between September 2009 and March 2022 at two hospitals. The extent of normal lung and fibrosis (sum of reticular opacity and honeycombing) was quantified on baseline and 1-year follow-up chest CT scans using a deep learning–based tool, and the changes were calculated. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality or lung transplantation; the secondary outcome was a ≥ 10% absolute decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) occurring after the 1-year follow-up. Associations between changes in CT quantification and these outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Results A total of 436 patients (341 men; mean age, 69.8 years) were included. Greater preservation of normal lung extent over 1 year was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per 5% increase: 0.90; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85, 0.96; p < 0.001), whereas increases in fibrosis extent were associated with a higher risk (adjusted HR per 5% increase: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.27, p = 0.002). Regarding the secondary outcome of ≥ 10% absolute FVC decline, only the change in fibrosis extent remained a significant predictor (adjusted HR per 5% increase: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.45, p = 0.001). Conclusions Changes in deep learning–based CT quantification results over 1 year of pirfenidone treatment demonstrated significant prognostic value in patients with IPF. Key Points Question Disease progression and mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) continue to occur unpredictably beyond 1 year of pirfenidone treatment. Findings Changes in deep learning–based quantification of normal lung and fibrosis extent after 1 year of pirfenidone treatment were significant prognostic predictors. Critical relevance statement Incorporating 1-year changes in deep learning–based CT quantification improves prognostication of mortality, lung transplantation, and lung function decline, supporting more individualized risk stratification in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.