Hydrogen blending amplifies seismic risk to global gas pipelines

Abstract Repurposing existing natural gas pipelines for hydrogen service provides a promising approach for accelerated development of hydrogen economy. Yet hydrogen blending remains an underestimated amplifier of seismic risk to the pipelines. Herein, we assess the seismic hazard exposure, failure risk, and resilience loss on 2,554 operating pipelines, including 1,731 fault-crossing risk points and 476 topological systems, in the world. Results demonstrate that a prolonged hydrogen exposure elevates failure risk of the pipelines, with the failure probability increasing by nearly 40 times at certain sensitive crossings. The risk amplification is primarily driven by accumulated hydrogen damage to the pipelines, rather than by extreme seismic hotspots. Generally, the resilience loss of pipelines is topology-dependent, with main trunklines most affected. The findings exhibit a cross-scale risk spanning from pipe material degradation and structural failure to infrastructure disruption. It is proposed that evaluating the existing pipelines for hydrogen transport must include the seismic risk.