Victories Without Victory: The 2026 US–Israel War with Iran and Its Global Cost

On 28 February 2026 the United States and Israel launched a joint air campaign against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and much of Iran's leadership. Iran retaliated against Israel, US bases and Gulf states, and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This paper assesses the war's first eight months, to 2 November 2026: what the United States, Israel and Iran achieved and lost, its effects on the wider world, and possible futures. It finds that the war produced large tactical gains for the United States and Israel but no strategic resolution for any party. Iran's regime survived, its enriched uranium remains unverified, and Hormuz remains contested. The costs fell heavily on civilians, on Gulf economies and migrant workers, and on energy-importing countries, while Russia and China gained at little cost. The paper examines assessments by the EU, Russia, China, India, the Gulf states and Turkey, the roles of the UN and of mediators such as Pakistan and Qatar, the damage to US bases in the Gulf, military lessons, and parallels with earlier Gulf wars. It sets out four scenarios and recommends measures including IAEA verification, UN-backed maritime arrangements for Hormuz and, over time, a regional collective defence framework. Information is current to 2 November 2026. The paper contains 202 numbered references, including IAEA, UN Security Council, IMF, Congressional Research Service and US Department of Defense sources. Use of Artificial Intelligence Tools: The author conceived the idea, defined the scope, and established the overall structure of the paper. Claude Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) was used to support the research process, drafting, editing, language refinement, and preparation of figures. The author reviewed and critically assessed the AI-assisted material and takes full responsibility for the accuracy, integrity, analysis, and final content of the manuscript.