The File That Counted Itself Twice: Paper #224's Deposited Catalog, Its Bin Widths, and the Spread That Survives Both

Pays the two grade-A debts Paper #224 (One Ruler, Three b-Values) printed against itself, by exact recomputation from its own record. (1) The deposited-file kill (D-220-237-19): recomputing the three Gutenberg-Richter estimators from the deposited California ml catalog gives spread 0.2531 in every state of the file, so the kill condition (spread at or under 0.0639) does not fire and #224's priced claim survives -- but the deposited file itself is corrupt: it holds 20,660 rows under SHA-256 9c2a5557... where the manuscript prints 10,330 rows and SHA-256 2cee4642... Dissection proves it is the correct snapshot concatenated to itself byte for byte (every event exactly twice; the first half hashes to the printed value), and a sandbox reproduction proves the mechanism: the original notebook's input glob matches its own output snapshot, so one re-run doubled the file. The values survive because every estimator in the protocol is invariant under exact duplication; only maximum likelihood's formal error moves (0.0207 to 0.0147). The provenance sentence is killed at full size in DEBT-224/KILLS.md. (2) The bin-width spread (D-220-237-20): the catalog is mixed-precision (39.98 percent of headline magnitudes land exactly on a tenth, against ~10 percent expected under pure hundredth rounding). Exact grouped likelihood gives b = 1.4288 at the finest rounding present, a mixed-precision fit gives 1.4478 (tenth-rounded share 0.332), and the continuous limit is 1.4526 -- the printed headline MLE of 1.2445 (Utsu width 0.1) is low by 0.184, 8.9 times its printed formal error. Corrected estimator spread: 0.4374, 6.85 times the largest formal error (printed: 0.2531, 3.96 times); the straddle of b = 1 stands. Attacks: adversarial independent re-binning cannot push the spread under 0.0983 (under 0.1999 with defensible widths); 200 bootstrap resamples never return a spread at or under the kill bar; the b-positive estimator splits under its own binning (1.1153 raw, 1.5006 corrected) and adjudicates nothing. The completeness sweep's printed cut labels 2.8/3.2/3.8 are corrected to the notebook's actual quarter cuts 2.75/3.25/3.75. Graded DERIVED-INDEPENDENT.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23926530
Primary Topic
earthquake and tectonic studies
Type
preprint
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preprint

The File That Counted Itself Twice: Paper #224's Deposited Catalog, Its Bin Widths, and the Spread That Survives Both

William Alexander Aldred
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
earthquake and tectonic studies
preprint

The File That Counted Itself Twice: Paper #224's Deposited Catalog, Its Bin Widths, and the Spread That Survives Both

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

Pays the two grade-A debts Paper #224 (One Ruler, Three b-Values) printed against itself, by exact recomputation from its own record. (1) The deposited-file kill (D-220-237-19): recomputing the three Gutenberg-Richter estimators from the deposited California ml catalog gives spread 0.2531 in every state of the file, so the kill condition (spread at or under 0.0639) does not fire and #224's priced claim survives -- but the deposited file itself is corrupt: it holds 20,660 rows under SHA-256 9c2a5557... where the manuscript prints 10,330 rows and SHA-256 2cee4642... Dissection proves it is the correct snapshot concatenated to itself byte for byte (every event exactly twice; the first half hashes to the printed value), and a sandbox reproduction proves the mechanism: the original notebook's input glob matches its own output snapshot, so one re-run doubled the file. The values survive because every estimator in the protocol is invariant under exact duplication; only maximum likelihood's formal error moves (0.0207 to 0.0147). The provenance sentence is killed at full size in DEBT-224/KILLS.md. (2) The bin-width spread (D-220-237-20): the catalog is mixed-precision (39.98 percent of headline magnitudes land exactly on a tenth, against ~10 percent expected under pure hundredth rounding). Exact grouped likelihood gives b = 1.4288 at the finest rounding present, a mixed-precision fit gives 1.4478 (tenth-rounded share 0.332), and the continuous limit is 1.4526 -- the printed headline MLE of 1.2445 (Utsu width 0.1) is low by 0.184, 8.9 times its printed formal error. Corrected estimator spread: 0.4374, 6.85 times the largest formal error (printed: 0.2531, 3.96 times); the straddle of b = 1 stands. Attacks: adversarial independent re-binning cannot push the spread under 0.0983 (under 0.1999 with defensible widths); 200 bootstrap resamples never return a spread at or under the kill bar; the b-positive estimator splits under its own binning (1.1153 raw, 1.5006 corrected) and adjudicates nothing. The completeness sweep's printed cut labels 2.8/3.2/3.8 are corrected to the notebook's actual quarter cuts 2.75/3.25/3.75. Graded DERIVED-INDEPENDENT.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
earthquake and tectonic studies
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