Climate Concern, Economic Capacity, and Fertility Intentions: Comparing Parents and Non-parents across 27 OECD Countries

Abstract As fertility declines across many high-income countries, growing attention has been paid to whether climate change affects reproductive decision-making. This study examines how climate concern is associated with fertility intentions, whether this association differs by parental status, and whether it varies by economic capacity. Using the 2024 OECD Risks that Matter survey, we analyze 12,938 respondents aged 50 or younger across 27 OECD countries, including 6,159 childless individuals and 6,779 parents. Negative binomial regression models distinguish between short- and long-term climate concern and test their interactions with economic capacity. The results show three main patterns. First, short-term climate concern is associated with lower fertility intentions, particularly among parents, for whom a one-category increase in concern corresponds to approximately a 10.5% reduction in intended additional children. Second, among childless individuals, long-term rather than short-term concern is associated with lower intended fertility. Third, among childless individuals, the negative association between long-term concern and fertility intentions becomes weaker as economic capacity increases. These findings suggest that climate concern may operate as a source of future uncertainty, but its association with fertility intentions varies by the time horizon of concern, parental status, and economic resources.