Can a Weekly Trend Strategy Beat Buy and Hold on Indian Equity Indices? Evidence from Data Between January 2017 and July 2026

This paper asks whether a simple trend-following strategy, checked once a week on three NSE indices (the Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250), can beat buying the indices and holding them. The data are NSE's daily index files; the test runs from January 2017 to July 2026, after trading costs. The answer is: not reliably. The best strategy found holds the three indices only while all three close above their weekly Supertrend line (period 35 weeks, multiple 3) and moves to cash otherwise. It returned 16.0% a year against 15.4% for buy and hold, with a worst fall of 10.0% against 42.9%. It made 23.5% a year against 17.6% from January 2017 to September 2021, a period with two crashes, but 9.0% against 13.3% from October 2021 to July 2026, when falls recovered quickly. In all, 4,881 versions were tested; for each idea, the version picked on the first half of the data earned less than buy and hold in the second half (5.8% to 10.4% a year). The strategy also lowered the return of a monthly SIP in every portfolio tested, including four sets of active mutual funds run through a hypothetical fund of funds. The paper is written for investor education and is not investment advice. Online version: https://indexstrategy.ayushagrawal.in/