Comparison of the Forecasts of Financial Analysts and Managers During the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Goldman Sachs, AIG, Ford, Wells Fargo and Starbucks

Economic uncertainty shapes how analysts and managers forecast corporate performance, yet comparative evidence across crises is limited. This study compares the earnings and stock price forecasts of financial analysts and company managers during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using annual data for five U.S. firms (Goldman Sachs, AIG, Ford, Wells Fargo and Starbucks) over 2009–2012 and 2020–2022, actual earnings and year-end stock prices are related to analyst and management forecasts through panel regressions with fixed and random effects, supported by descriptive, correlation, normality, robustness and Hausman tests. In the 2008 earnings model, neither forecast is a significant predictor of actual earnings, whereas in the stock price models and the COVID-19 earnings model analyst forecasts are significantly and positively related to actual outcomes and management forecasts are insignificant or negatively related. Both groups tended to underestimate the post-crisis recovery. The findings suggest that analysts and managers should adapt forecasts more quickly to changing economic conditions; recommendations on risk analysis, communication, digital transformation and diversification are derived.