Youth emigration and population aging in Kosovo: Implications for the sustainability of social policy

Kosovo is considered to have one of the highest rates of youth emigration in Europe. While fertility rates have seen a slight uptick in 2024–2025, they remain below replacement level, contributing to a gradual contraction of the working-age population. This qualitative study explores expert perspectives on the interlinkages between youth emigration and population aging in Kosovo, as well as the implications of this nexus for social protection, pensions, healthcare, and the labor market. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six experts representing the fields of sociology, economics, environmental studies, social policy/pensions, and public health. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. The results identified four overarching themes: (i) migration as a structural, multidimensional phenomenon, encompassing expert consensus on the acceleration of demographic aging; (ii) family and economic consequences for future generations, including human capital loss and the limits of remittances; (iii) mounting pressure on the pension system and expert divergence regarding the most appropriate policy models; and (iv) public health consequences, including health workforce attrition and the rising complexity of elder care. The findings show qualitative convergence with changes in diaspora remittance behavior following visa liberalization, and indicate that, according to one expert, environmental factors play a less prominent role than might be expected. This qualitative study contributes interdisciplinary evidence to inform policy responses to Kosovo’s accelerated demographic transition and addresses the limited empirical research on its implications for social policy in the Western Balkans. The main limitation is the small purposive sample of six experts, which precludes statistical generalization, although it is consistent with the exploratory and depth-oriented aim of the study.