AI, social change, and crime: How technology-driven changes in time use could affect crime trends

Technology leaders anticipate that the uptake of artificial intelligence (AI) will significantly increase people’s spare time. This study explores how AI-driven changes in everyday life may affect crime trends in America. I use historical data to estimate associations between time use and crime trends, distinguishing between out-of-home and in-home spare time and work and education across age groups. Model estimates from historical data inform scenario-based simulations of how increases in spare time across age groups and in-home and out-of-home settings may be associated with changes in crime. The consequences for crime may depend on which groups experience increases in spare time, where this time is spent, and which crime is considered. Out-of-home spare time among teenagers is associated with increases in street crime, while similar increases among older adults are associated with fewer street crimes. In-home spare time among teenagers is associated with fewer street crimes but more fraud.