Forecast-Error-Driven Multi-Time-Scale Hybrid Scheduling for Rural Integrated Energy Systems

Rural integrated energy systems (RIESs) suffer from volatile renewable generation, surging agricultural peak loads, and unevenly distributed forecast errors, which severely undermine scheduling robustness and economic efficiency. Conventional fixed-scenario robust scheduling cannot dynamically adapt to error variations, leading to either excessive conservatism or insufficient operational safety. This paper proposes a forecast-error-driven multi-time-scale hybrid robust-scenario scheduling framework with a three-layer closed-loop architecture: day-ahead multi-scenario robust baseline scheduling, intraday error-driven rolling correction, and real-time dynamic-simulation calibration. Case studies on a practical Yunnan rural system verify that within ±25% forecast error, the proposed method reduces operating costs by 12.8%, increases the renewable energy accommodation rate by 22.6%, lowers the dynamic constraint-violation rate below 0.05%, and maintains the average solution time within 9 s, achieving a superior balance of resilience and economy for complex rural operations.