Beyond Connectivity: Explaining Regional E-Commerce Conversion Gaps in the European Union

Although internet access is widespread across the European Union, substantial regional differences persist in online purchasing. This study examines how European regions translate digital connectivity and routine internet use into effective participation in e-commerce. It introduces the regional digital-to-commerce conversion gap, which captures the difference between daily internet use and online purchasing. The analysis is based on 1034 observations for regions at level 2 of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS 2) in 25 EU Member States during 2019–2024, using official Eurostat data without imputation. Panel models, spatial analysis, and country-grouped machine-learning techniques are combined to examine regional patterns from complementary perspectives. The results show that internet access remains an important foundation for e-commerce participation, but differences in daily internet use and internet banking are more closely associated with regional online purchasing once these factors are considered jointly. E-commerce participation also displays pronounced geographical clustering, although no independent spillover effect between neighbouring regions is identified. The predictive analysis confirms the collective importance of digital access, routine use, and transaction-oriented practices. These findings suggest that regional policies should combine connectivity investment with measures that strengthen practical digital engagement, secure transactions, and consumer participation in online markets.