Exercitus: A Registry of Military Exercises in the Baltic Sea Region, 2015-2026

Exercitus is a registry of military exercises in the Baltic Sea region from 2015 to 2026. Release 0.5.2 contains 1,658 exercise editions. Each recorded date, location, participant and personnel figure is tied to the words of the source it came from. The organizer's declared personnel count is kept apart from other reported estimates, and the registry records how exercises relate to each other: umbrella exercises and their parts, annual cycles, and exercises held more than once a year.The pipeline combines extraction by a language model with deterministic checks against the source text and with rules and corrections signed by a person. One reviewer checked 401 randomly drawn values from release 0.4.5; 85.5% of the 379 values that could be judged were correct. On a held-out test of extraction from source texts, the model read 91.3% of 126 values correctly. A preliminary completeness check found 20 of 23 reference exercises, a benchmark too small to establish coverage across the full period or region.In our tests, adding tasks to the extraction prompt lowered extraction accuracy, and the model's classifications of exercise kind and structure stayed below the acceptance threshold set in advance. The model therefore extracts values and proposes classifications and relationships, and a person accepts or rejects them through signed rules and corrections. The registry supports the study of reported military exercises and of disagreements between sources. Its limitations include uneven coverage, repeated reporting of the same underlying claims and errors in individual values.

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Publication Details

Published
2026-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/pvzu2
Primary Topic
European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies
Type
preprint
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Exercitus: A Registry of Military Exercises in the Baltic Sea Region, 2015-2026

Ivan Andrianov
European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies
preprint

Exercitus: A Registry of Military Exercises in the Baltic Sea Region, 2015-2026

Ivan Andrianov
preprint en

Abstract

Exercitus is a registry of military exercises in the Baltic Sea region from 2015 to 2026. Release 0.5.2 contains 1,658 exercise editions. Each recorded date, location, participant and personnel figure is tied to the words of the source it came from. The organizer's declared personnel count is kept apart from other reported estimates, and the registry records how exercises relate to each other: umbrella exercises and their parts, annual cycles, and exercises held more than once a year.The pipeline combines extraction by a language model with deterministic checks against the source text and with rules and corrections signed by a person. One reviewer checked 401 randomly drawn values from release 0.4.5; 85.5% of the 379 values that could be judged were correct. On a held-out test of extraction from source texts, the model read 91.3% of 126 values correctly. A preliminary completeness check found 20 of 23 reference exercises, a benchmark too small to establish coverage across the full period or region.In our tests, adding tasks to the extraction prompt lowered extraction accuracy, and the model's classifications of exercise kind and structure stayed below the acceptance threshold set in advance. The model therefore extracts values and proposes classifications and relationships, and a person accepts or rejects them through signed rules and corrections. The registry supports the study of reported military exercises and of disagreements between sources. Its limitations include uneven coverage, repeated reporting of the same underlying claims and errors in individual values.

European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies
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Exercitus: A Registry of Military Exercises in the Baltic Sea Region, 2015-2026 — Ivan Andrianov · (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS