The cyclicality of investment–financing maturity mismatch in emerging markets: firm-level evidence from Vietnam

Purpose This study examines the cyclicality of the corporate investment–financing maturity mismatch in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data from 548 non-financial listed firms in Vietnam over the period 2008 to 2024, the study estimates fixed-effects and dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) models to address persistence and endogeneity concerns. The findings are further validated through a broad set of robustness tests. Findings The results provide strong evidence that maturity mismatch is procyclical. Economic expansions shorten firms' debt maturity and raise their risk-taking behavior, both of which intensify the mismatch. The procyclical pattern is less pronounced for larger firms, Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE)-listed firms and high-growth firms. Firms in high-tech sectors and those operating under monetary easing conditions also show weaker procyclical responses. Originality/value This study extends the corporate maturity mismatch literature by highlighting the role of business cycles as a systematic macroeconomic determinant of firms' maturity structure decisions, particularly in emerging markets. It further provides evidence on how economic cycles influence maturity mismatch through debt maturity and risk-taking and highlights heterogeneous firm responses across firm characteristics, industries and monetary policy environments.