Air Connectivity, Sustainable Tourism and South–South Integration: Evidence from Brazil, BRICS+ and the Global South

Air connectivity can broaden access to international tourism markets, yet its association with tourism development may vary substantially with network maturity and existing accessibility. Using Brazil as a Global South destination, this study compares inbound tourism from OECD, BRICS+, and Central and South American markets from 2002–2022. An unbalanced country–year panel is combined with Principal Component Analysis to construct synthetic indicators of air connectivity and other structural dimensions, followed by panel-data estimation, specification testing, robust inference and endogeneity diagnostics. The results show a connectivity gradient across the regional models. The Air Connectivity Factor shows its strongest association with inbound tourism in Central and South America (β = 0.212; partial R2 = 56.8%), remains statistically significant for BRICS+ markets (β = 0.117; partial R2 = 17.0%), and is not retained in the preferred OECD specification. Digital readiness and visa exemption also display relevant associations in emerging-market models. These differences indicate that connectivity’s explanatory relevance depends on existing accessibility conditions, rather than following a uniform pattern across origin markets. The composite indicators measure accessibility and market conditions, not sustainability outcomes, so the sustainability implications are interpretive. From this perspective, the findings support selective rather than indiscriminate connectivity expansion. Policy assessment should consider whether improved accessibility diversifies tourism markets, strengthens South–South integration, and broadens participation in international tourism, while accounting for aviation’s environmental costs. The Brazilian case thus contributes to a broader Global South discussion that considers sustainable transport, tourism governance, and international cooperation together when evaluating future air-corridor priorities.