Generation-time distortion is an emergent property of epidemic control

We find that a vast space of public health interventions necessarily reshape the intervals between successive infections, known as generation times, for directly-transmitted infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19, Ebola virus, influenza). While some studies have connected specific interventions (e.g., contact-tracing, isolation) to shifted generation times, most epidemiological analyses assume these intervals are stationary. We reveal that this assumption is substantially more fragile than previously recognised. We develop a universal microscopic representation for all intervention mechanisms that reduce individual-level infectiousness and establish generation-time reshaping as a fundamental macroscopic feature of those interventions, emerging at the population level. By constraining the topology of our representation to reflect specific mechanisms, we explain and unify previous studies as well as predict generation-time phenomena yet to be observed. We further show that neglecting generation-time reshaping can under- or over-estimate intervention effectiveness and disease control- lability by 100%, under realistic parameter settings. A stringent intervention can even produce no estimated transmissibility difference. Generation-time distortion causes unavoidable and underrated biases that can severely limit model-driven public health policy and pandemic preparedness.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
medRxiv
Published
2026-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.11.02.26367101
Primary Topic
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

Generation-time distortion is an emergent property of epidemic control

Pates Richard, Kris Varun Parag, Patrick De Leenheer
medRxiv
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
preprint

Generation-time distortion is an emergent property of epidemic control

Pates Richard, Kris Varun Parag, Patrick De Leenheer
preprint en

Abstract

We find that a vast space of public health interventions necessarily reshape the intervals between successive infections, known as generation times, for directly-transmitted infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19, Ebola virus, influenza). While some studies have connected specific interventions (e.g., contact-tracing, isolation) to shifted generation times, most epidemiological analyses assume these intervals are stationary. We reveal that this assumption is substantially more fragile than previously recognised. We develop a universal microscopic representation for all intervention mechanisms that reduce individual-level infectiousness and establish generation-time reshaping as a fundamental macroscopic feature of those interventions, emerging at the population level. By constraining the topology of our representation to reflect specific mechanisms, we explain and unify previous studies as well as predict generation-time phenomena yet to be observed. We further show that neglecting generation-time reshaping can under- or over-estimate intervention effectiveness and disease control- lability by 100%, under realistic parameter settings. A stringent intervention can even produce no estimated transmissibility difference. Generation-time distortion causes unavoidable and underrated biases that can severely limit model-driven public health policy and pandemic preparedness.

medRxiv
Oregon State University (US), King's College London (GB), Lund University (SE)
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

Laika access coming soon
Generation-time distortion is an emergent property of epidemic control — Pates Richard, Kris Varun Parag, et al. · medRxiv (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS