Gendered security sector reform and women's political participation in post-conflict legislatures: a regression-discontinuity evaluation of quota thresholds and accountability outcomes

The study employs a regression-discontinuity design to evaluate whether crossing a quota threshold produces measurable improvements in accountability outcomes. The analysis draws on a real dataset from the DHS Program survey indicator 'Percentage of pregnancy outcomes wanted then' (id PR_PLSA_W_THN), covering 16 African countries for the period 2021-2025, with 16 country-survey observations. The mean value of the indicator is 70.344 (SD = 11.928), ranging from 47.10 in Lesotho to 88.10 in Burkina Faso. The regression-discontinuity framework is proposed as a methodological approach for future empirical testing, rather than as an executed analysis. Quota thresholds can create institutional openings for women's participation, but their effectiveness depends on the design of GSSR mechanisms and the broader accountability environment. The contribution lies in specifying the conditions under which quota thresholds are likely to translate into substantive accountability outcomes, and in identifying the boundary conditions that limit their impact. The study concludes that GSSR and quota policies must be integrated with broader institutional reforms to produce durable improvements in women's political participation and accountability.