Exact service-risk frontiers for sequential inspection with a single hidden fault

We study sequential information acquisition before one irreversible recovery deployment when exactly one of finitely many suppliers has an unknown fault. Perfect inspections have a common fee and a common delay. The objective combines expected capped outage loss and actual inspection expenditure, subject to an unconditional service-failure probability bound. Every adaptive policy is dominated for these two upper budgets by a mixture of ordered inspection lists: a positive report triggers deployment, while an all-negative path ends with an uninspected fallback. For a fixed planned depth, inspection reach probabilities make the expected fee separable by position. This yields an exact weighted-assignment reduction, an O(n^4) arithmetic scalarization oracle, and a randomized budget-frontier linear program with O(n^3) variables and O(n^2) structural constraints, apart from nonnegativity bounds. Each feasible LP point is implemented by time-zero randomization independent of the fault. With equal deployment times, one decreasing-prior order simultaneously optimizes both criteria at each depth, reducing the complete frontier to at most n stopping points. A positive-fee, positive-delay example shows why an unprofitable one-step inspection does not justify stopping. AI tools assisted with mathematical derivation, proof checking, and manuscript preparation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23917899
Primary Topic
Reliability and Maintenance Optimization
Type
preprint
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preprint

Exact service-risk frontiers for sequential inspection with a single hidden fault

Zihuan Xu
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Reliability and Maintenance Optimization
preprint

Exact service-risk frontiers for sequential inspection with a single hidden fault

Zihuan Xu
preprint en

Abstract

We study sequential information acquisition before one irreversible recovery deployment when exactly one of finitely many suppliers has an unknown fault. Perfect inspections have a common fee and a common delay. The objective combines expected capped outage loss and actual inspection expenditure, subject to an unconditional service-failure probability bound. Every adaptive policy is dominated for these two upper budgets by a mixture of ordered inspection lists: a positive report triggers deployment, while an all-negative path ends with an uninspected fallback. For a fixed planned depth, inspection reach probabilities make the expected fee separable by position. This yields an exact weighted-assignment reduction, an O(n^4) arithmetic scalarization oracle, and a randomized budget-frontier linear program with O(n^3) variables and O(n^2) structural constraints, apart from nonnegativity bounds. Each feasible LP point is implemented by time-zero randomization independent of the fault. With equal deployment times, one decreasing-prior order simultaneously optimizes both criteria at each depth, reducing the complete frontier to at most n stopping points. A positive-fee, positive-delay example shows why an unprofitable one-step inspection does not justify stopping. AI tools assisted with mathematical derivation, proof checking, and manuscript preparation.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Capital Normal University (CN)
Reliability and Maintenance Optimization
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