Mechanisms Linking Human Activities to Habitat Use by Amur Tigers and Amur Leopards Under Differentiated Management

Human pressures may be associated with predator space use directly or through prey, with variation by season and zoning context. We combined cameras, source-specific patrol observations, and environmental covariates across 18,243 km grids in Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park. Hierarchical models estimated predator spatial-use probabilities and prey use intensities using 2024 monthly inputs. Tigers used cameras and patrols, whereas leopard states used cameras only. Spatial-error piecewise SEMs used 500 independently paired state draws and 400 conditional multivariate coefficient simulations per pair. No direct path and two single-prey chains passed the extended descriptive screening rule during snow, compared with four direct paths and one chain in snow-free conditions. The four directional hypotheses received limited, pressure- and species-specific support; seasonal and B–H–M comparisons remained exploratory. Negative net indirect estimates sometimes arose from component signs contrary to the proposed resource-depletion pathway. Opposing farmland–leopard estimates produced an uncertain total rather than evidence of exact cancellation. Six park-wide alternatives examined estimation, covariate, and network assumptions; the original B–H–M models described four snow-free contexts. These conditional patterns support field assessment rather than causal mediation or intervention prescriptions.