Modernisation, Migration and National Identification: Evidence From Central Asia

ABSTRACT Under which conditions do individuals identify as citizens of a state? This paper addresses this question in the context of four Central Asia states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) using seven waves of Central Asia Barometer Survey Data. Despite concerns that particularistic attachments undermine nation‐building in the region, a clear majority of respondents in each country identify as citizens. Employing multilevel statistical models, the analysis tests hypotheses derived from modernisation theory and exchange‐theoretic approaches and also examines the role of group‐level structural factors. The results provide general support for modernisation‐based expectations, while also revealing a distinctive regional pattern in which rural residents are more likely than urban residents to identify as citizens. Most importantly, the findings demonstrate that transnational labour migration weakens national identification: reliance on remittances is consistently associated with a lower probability of identifying as a citizen. This result highlights a structural tension facing remittance‐dependent states, in which economic reliance on external labour markets may weaken national attachment.