From strategic partnership to structural dependency? The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Sino-Russian trade relations

This article examines the structural transformation of Sino-Russian trade relations following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Using UN Comtrade data (2010–2024) across HS27, HS84, HS85 and HS87, it documents the scope and pace of Russia’s reorientation towards China. Russia’s mineral fuel exports to China rose by 77%, from $53.8 billion in 2021 to $95.2 billion in 2024, and China’s share of Russian imports exceeded 50% in 2024. Applying Hirschman’s theory of asymmetric interdependence, the article argues that the war and sanctions did not create the asymmetry but accelerated a trend under way since 2014. Russia’s post-2014 turn away from the West proved decisive, as Moscow was compelled to deepen its dependence on China and to weaken its own bargaining position. The design is descriptive, and the article distinguishes concentration, exposure, dependence and bargaining power, measuring the first three while confining claims about the fourth to observable outcomes.