Assessment of the probability of vertebrogenic pain syndrome combined with neurological status changes in metallurgical workers

Introduction. Pain in the lower back and neck remains one of the leading causes of reduced work capacity. Given the high prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders among workers in the metallurgical industry, an important task of periodic medical examinations is to promptly identify individuals with a combination of vertebrogenic pain syndrome and changes in neurological status.The study aims to develop a model for assessing the likelihood of a combination of vertebrogenic pain syndrome and changes in neurological status in workers at a metallurgical enterprise based on data from periodic medical examinations to preliminarily identify individuals who need in depth neurological examination.Materials and methods. The authors conducted a retrospective cross sectional study of 1,537 employees of a metallurgical enterprise. The condition of interest was defined as vertebrogenic pain syndrome according to a neurologist’s conclusion in combination with at least one neurological status change. The authors sequentially evaluated models that included individual characteristics, the production group, complaints, blood glucose levels, and total cholesterol levels. To assess the probability of the studied condition occurring, they used logistic regression with L2 regularization and repeated nested cross validation.Results. In 313 (19.9%) workers, vertebrogenic pain syndrome was combined with at least one change in neurological status. The AUC of the model with individual characteristics was 0.691; after adding the production group, it increased to 0.710; with four specific complaints, it reached 0.774; and with an expanded list of complaints, it reached 0.804. At a threshold of 15%, the model identified 47.0% of workers; the sensitivity was 84.3%, the specificity was 62.3%, and the negative predictive value was 94.1%.Limitations. The study was conducted using data from a single enterprise and had a retrospective, cross sectional design.Conclusion. The inclusion of complaints provided the greatest additional information. The results obtained allow us to consider the model as an additional tool for the preliminary selection of workers for subsequent in depth neurological examination. Practical application of the approach requires external validation and prospective verification.Ethics. The study was approved by the bioethics commission of the Federal Budgetary Institution "Ufa Research Institute of Occupational Health and Human Ecology" (Protocol No. 01-08 dated 10.08.2026); individual informed consent was not required.Contributions:Abdrakhmanova E.R. — study concept and design, statistical analysis, analysis and interpretation of results;Zaidullin I.I. — research concept and design, statistical analysis, literature review;Shaikhlislamova E.R. — data collection and systematization, analysis and interpretation of results;Salavatova L.Kh. — data collection and systematization, analysis and interpretation of results, literature review;Masyagutova L.M. — analysis and interpretation of results;Valeeva E.T. — analysis and interpretation of results;All authors — preparation and editing of the manuscript, approval of the final version.Funding. The study had no funding.Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.Received: 07.09.2026 / Accepted: 30.09.2026 / Published: 03.11.2026