Clean Energy Statecraft before the WTO: Weaponization Claims, Short Supply, and the Limits of Public Morals

Abstract As illustrated by the proposed EU Industrial Accelerator Act, concerns over clean technology dependencies are prompting importers to adopt trade-restrictive localization measures. States justify these measures by invoking the threat of weaponization of supplies, a phenomenon theorized in the energy statecraft literature. This article examines whether weaponization concerns, associated with strategic dependencies, can be accommodated under the GATT general exceptions. In order to understand the constraints that the GATT imposes on states’ responses to alleged weaponization risks, it analyses WTO decisions on ‘short supply’ and the recent US–Inflation Reduction Act Panel Report regarding ‘public morals’ based on the energy statecraft theory. It finds that general dependency offers little relief unless importers can demonstrate the unreliability of transnational supply chains, while diversification towards trusted partners may better align with public morals than localization. These constraints do not represent a failure of WTO law – given the threat that protectionism poses to accelerated decarbonization, WTO safeguards are necessary to ensure that clean industrial policies do not slow down the energy transition.