Integrated conceptual framework for the resilience of the agrarian-economic system of Ukraine

Ukraine’s agrarian-economic systems currently operate under overlapping sudden shocks and long-term stresses of a climatic, biological, market, institutional, and military nature, which makes a theoretical and methodological study of their resilience highly relevant. The article aims to develop an integrated conceptual framework for the resilience of Ukraine’s agrarian-economic system by systematizing scientific and institutional approaches and identifying unresolved methodological problems. The authors used historical-logical and comparative analysis, systematization, generalization, and conceptual modeling. The evolution of the resilience concept is traced from the engineering interpretation (the speed of return to equilibrium) through ecological and social-ecological interpretations to an evolutionary understanding of resilience as a continuous process; in agricultural economics, this path is reflected in the shift from the farm’s buffer capacity to its transformative capability. The authors define the resilience of an agrarian-economic system as its dynamic capacity to ensure over time the functions desired by society – food security, decent incomes and public goods – through a coherent combination of the capacities to prevent, anticipate, absorb, adapt and transform. A comparison of scientific and institutional discourses made it possible to identify eight groups of unresolved methodological problems: terminological uncertainty; the relationship between resilience and sustainability; system boundaries and cross-level trade-offs; the specifics of war-induced shocks; measurement; transformative capacity and the policy bias towards robustness; governance and the distribution of responsibility; and compatibility with EU integration. The integrated conceptual framework combines the blocks of disturbances, object, key capacities and functions; the factors that strengthen capacities (system attributes and governance); and a monitoring and policy feedback loop, with the coherence of capacities, levels, and policies as a cross-cutting principle. War-induced shocks are singled out as deliberate, protracted and cumulative, while European integration is treated as a source of transformative pressure. The criterion for assessing resilience is the ability to perform the functions society wants, rather than a return to the pre-war state. The framework provides a basis for developing a system of resilience indicators compatible with the approaches of the FAO, SURE-Farm and the EU, and for substantiating agricultural policy in the context of post-war recovery. Keywords: resilience, agrarian-economic system, conceptual framework, coherence, transformative capacity, war-induced shocks, food security, European integration.