Growth–Inflation Seasons and Price-Based Risk Control: Evidence from a Student-Managed Investment Fund

This paper evaluates the economic-season system I introduced to the Stevens Graduate Student Managed Investment Fund (GSMIF), in which growth and inflation scores blend four season baskets and price-based rules set a managed sleeve’s holdings. From April 2019 to September 2026, after the season baskets were fitted, the selected-equity sleeve returns 21.57% a year net of modeled costs with a 16.23% maximum drawdown, and a broad-equity version 15.00% with 9.62%. Over April 2017–September 2026, whose first 21 of 114 months are in-sample for the baskets, the selected sleeve returns 18.24% with 16.23%, against 12.22% and 33.53% for global equities (ACWI). The most demanding benchmark, PV, holds the baskets equally, keeps GSMIF’s price controls and caps volatility. At equal forecast risk since April 2019, the full system leads PV by 0.63 percentage points a year with selected equities and 0.20 with broad equities. Both intervals include zero, so any matched advantage is small and the intervals leave room for zero added value from the growth–inflation scores beyond good price-based risk management. The rules are taken as given here, but the 2017–2026 record had been studied before this evaluation, so it is a historical reconstruction; a holdout test requires future data.