Before regulation: structural lock-out of mass timber in Pakistan's built environment

Purpose Existing studies explain mass timber nonadoption through regulatory; insurance and liability mechanisms derived from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) markets. This article asks what happens when those gatekeeping institutions are weak or absent, yet low-carbon materials still fail to enter the market. It develops and empirically applies a mechanism-based diagnostic framework distinguishing formal regulatory lock-in from informal structural lock-out, using Pakistan as a critical case. Design/methodology/approach Phase One consolidated a process model of lock-in through a critical interpretive synthesis (CIS) of 22 OECD mass timber studies drawn from a 95-study scoping corpus (literature searched January 2015 to January 2026). Phase Two tested and extended it through a qualitative Pakistan case study. Data comprised 32 semi-structured expert interviews with architects, structural engineers, developers and building regulators in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad (September 2025 to February 2026), triangulated with policy documents, tariff schedules, trade statistics, procurement records and marketing materials. Inter-coder reliability: Krippendorf’s a = 0.81. Findings The three OECD mechanisms (risk categorization inertia, epistemic closure and liability lock-in) are absent or latent in Pakistan. Yet no market presence was identified; official record zero cross-laminated timber or glam imports for 2015–2025, and no multistorey mass timber project was identified. Inductive analysis reveals an alternative triad: (1) import dependency and foreign-exchange sensitivity, with an indicative landed-cost differential of 3.5–5× relative to concrete; (2) a material imaginary equating modernity with concrete and steel and (3) donor-project fragmentation that precludes supply-chain learning. These mechanisms interact in a self-reinforcing loop that excludes mass timber before formal regulation becomes relevant. Research limitations/implications The Pakistani case supports analytical depth rather than statistical generalization, and small-scale or undocumented applications cannot be conclusively excluded. The mechanisms identified here require comparative testing in other lower-middle-income markets. Practical implications Policy levers extend beyond code revision to tariff rationalization, domestic bio-based processing (including engineered bamboo), a coordinated donor procurement compact and symbolic reframing through public demonstration buildings, sequenced in three phases with designated lead actors and explicit attention to equity and engineering education. Social implications The research underlines the symbolic nature of material exclusion, showing how imaginaries of modernity can marginalize low-carbon alternatives in rapidly urbanizing societies. Originality/value The article extends process-theoretic accounts of material-regime persistence beyond the OECD, showing that lock-out operates through trade, culture and procurement before insurance and liability regimes become relevant, and translates the distinction into policy practice through the two-profile Structural Lock-Out Diagnostic Tool.