Analysing occupational migrant segregation in the European Union using a sample selection framework

Abstract The European labour market reveals significant disparities between migrant and national workers in terms of employment rates, job quality, and occupational outcomes. This paper proposes a robust approach to analysing migrant segregation and differences in employment outcomes by correcting for selection bias within worker groups, thereby addressing both observed and unobserved factors related to work attitudes among migrants and natives. It also constructs counterfactual distributions, providing reliable insights into working condition disparities. Empirical evidence from the 2024 Labour Force Survey for Italy, France, and Germany shows that national workers generally benefit from better working conditions, high-skilled occupations, and more attractive sectors. In contrast, migrant workers are disproportionately concentrated in low-skilled occupations, including elementary roles, medium-skilled industrial positions, and accommodation and food services, with a notable presence in the household employment sector in Italy. Even after accounting for individual characteristics and using a counterfactual approach, migrants remain overrepresented in low-skilled and service-oriented positions and underrepresented in managerial and professional occupations, particularly in Italy. These findings highlight the persistent cultural and institutional barriers facing migrants, emphasising the need for comprehensive integration policies and labour market reforms.