India Solar Transition | Scenario Analysis: Solar Deployment, Land Requirements and End-Of-Life PV Management in India: A Benchmarked Scenario Analysis for FY 2026–27 to FY 2039–40

This paper examines how a high-deployment solar pathway could affect annual electricity supply, land occupation and planning for photovoltaic (PV) end-of-life management in India. The analysis combines official benchmarks with transparent scenario assumptions. India had 171.05 GW of installed solar capacity at 30 September 2026 (MNRE); the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) 2029–30 optimal mix study identifies approximately 292.6 GW of solar PV capacity and reports a 20th Electric Power Survey energy requirement of 2,279.7 TWh for that year. Extending capacity to 629 GW by FY 2039–40 is treated here as an illustrative scenario, not a government target. At a 21% capacity utilisation factor (CUF), this pathway yields about 1,157 TWh per year, or 31.2% of a separately assumed 5% annual demand-growth pathway from the CEA 2029–30 benchmark. A land-intensity assumption of 1.62 ha/MW for the non-rooftop share implies approximately 1.02 million ha of cumulative project footprint by FY 2039–40; this is a scenario estimate, not a parcel-level land-suitability assessment. Published India-specific modelling estimates cumulative PV waste by 2040 at 6.64 Mt under an early-loss business-as-usual case and 5.48 Mt under a regular-loss case. These are alternative model outputs and do not support a claim that 6 Mt/year of recycling capacity is required. A screening-level 50,000 t/year plant model produces a 6.5% base-case IRR and an NPV of about −₹41 crore at a 12% discount rate under flat annual EBITDA assumptions. Results indicate that the original draft’s detailed annual waste series and recycling-capacity gap claims are not reproducible from its cited sources. The paper provides a transparent framework and identifies the additional cohort, land and facility data needed for investment-grade estimates.