Modelación hidráulica y mejoramiento de una red urbana de agua potable bajo crecimiento poblacional: caso Moyobamba, Perú

Objective: To evaluate the effect of projected population growth on the hydraulic performance of the urban drinking water distribution network of Moyobamba, Peru, and determine the effect of targeted infrastructure interventions on future pressure conditions. Methods: A hydraulic model was developed using WaterCAD V8i, incorporating network characteristics, population projections, and water demand for 0-, 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year horizons. Performance was evaluated through nodal pressure and pipe velocity, comparing scenarios with and without improvement. Results: Total projected demand increased from 96.18 L/s to 220.86 L/s over 20 years, representing a 129.64% increase. Under the 20-year scenario without improvement, 183 of 362 nodes presented negative pressure. With improvement, no nodes presented negative pressure and 354 of 362 nodes (97.79%) were above 10 m.a.c. Conclusions: Demand growth produced a nonlinear hydraulic response and generated critical pressure conditions at the 20-year horizon. Targeted interventions substantially improved pressure conditions, indicating that scenario-based hydraulic modeling can support the planning and prioritization of interventions in urban drinking water distribution networks.