The Probability of Courage: Audie Murphy at Holtzwihr—A Decision Analysis

This article examines Second Lieutenant Audie Murphy’s actions near Holtzwihr, France, on 26 January 1945 through a structured decision-analysis model. It reconstructs two successive choice points, the initial problem of whether to continue resisting or withdraw and the later opportunity created by an accessible machine gun on a damaged tank destroyer. The study distinguishes qualitative judgments about military objectives from numerical probability and preference assignments, then compares the model’s expected values with the outcome of Murphy’s actions. Under the assumptions reproduced in the original analysis, retreat ranks above continued resistance despite Murphy’s eventual success in combat. The case illustrates the difference between decision quality and realized outcome, while also exposing the limitations of retrospectively assigning probabilities and preferences to a rapidly evolving battlefield episode. The numerical assumptions are interpretive estimates rather than independently calibrated historical measurements.