Pre-Registered Blind Predictions Ahead of ESA Gaia DR4 (Dec 2026) & BHEX: Zero-Knob 3D QUMOND Wide-Binary Gradient, Galactic Compass Anisotropy, and +4.63% Photon-Ring Shadow (TNAP-Theories v1.0)

Official Pre-Registered Blind Falsification Forecast (Timestamped Prior to ESA Gaia Data Release 4 on December 2, 2026) This archive locks zero-free-parameter observational predictions and deterministic open-source verification scripts from the exploratory Spacetime Weave framework (Theoretically Not A Physicist / TNAP-Theories) ahead of ESA's 66-month Gaia Data Release 4 (DR4) and the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX) space-VLBI mission: Zero-Knob Horizon Scale: a_0 = c * H_0 / (sqrt(3) * pi) = 1.2027e-10 m/s^2 with Bose–Einstein / classical wave-Unruh response nu(y) = 1 / (1 - exp(-sqrt(y))) solved via exact 3D conservative curl-free two-body QUMOND (nabla^2 Phi_eff = -nabla . [nu(|g_N|/a_0) g_N]). Gaia DR4 Wide-Binary Falsification Suite: Pre-registers (1) the Solar-neighborhood separation curve from 1,000 AU (0.0%) across the 7,006 AU screening knee to 15,000–20,000 AU; (2) the local d < 300 pc Galactic Center–Anticenter compass anisotropy split; and (3) the reachable d <= 2.2 kpc Galactocentric environment step from Inner Disk to Outer Thick Disk / Lower Halo, with locked RUWE <= 1.20, parallax_over_error >= 20, and NSS == 0 quality cuts. BHEX Strong-Field Photon-Ring Test: Pre-registers the 2PN shadow radius R_sh = 2 * e * r_g = 5.4366 r_g from the exponential optical weave metric n(U) = exp(2U), A(U) = exp(-2U)—+4.63% wider than Schwarzschild General Relativity (3*sqrt(3) r_g = 5.1962 r_g) and strictly above General Relativity's all-spin upper ceiling. Epistemic Transparency: Openly documents both verified simulation benchmarks and remaining unsolved theoretical hurdles (micro-to-macro two-knot gravity emergence and full covariant CMB polarization evolution).

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23919216
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
preprint
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preprint

Pre-Registered Blind Predictions Ahead of ESA Gaia DR4 (Dec 2026) & BHEX: Zero-Knob 3D QUMOND Wide-Binary Gradient, Galactic Compass Anisotropy, and +4.63% Photon-Ring Shadow (TNAP-Theories v1.0)

David Stoler
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
preprint

Pre-Registered Blind Predictions Ahead of ESA Gaia DR4 (Dec 2026) & BHEX: Zero-Knob 3D QUMOND Wide-Binary Gradient, Galactic Compass Anisotropy, and +4.63% Photon-Ring Shadow (TNAP-Theories v1.0)

David Stoler
preprint en

Abstract

Official Pre-Registered Blind Falsification Forecast (Timestamped Prior to ESA Gaia Data Release 4 on December 2, 2026) This archive locks zero-free-parameter observational predictions and deterministic open-source verification scripts from the exploratory Spacetime Weave framework (Theoretically Not A Physicist / TNAP-Theories) ahead of ESA's 66-month Gaia Data Release 4 (DR4) and the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX) space-VLBI mission: Zero-Knob Horizon Scale: a_0 = c * H_0 / (sqrt(3) * pi) = 1.2027e-10 m/s^2 with Bose–Einstein / classical wave-Unruh response nu(y) = 1 / (1 - exp(-sqrt(y))) solved via exact 3D conservative curl-free two-body QUMOND (nabla^2 Phi_eff = -nabla . [nu(|g_N|/a_0) g_N]). Gaia DR4 Wide-Binary Falsification Suite: Pre-registers (1) the Solar-neighborhood separation curve from 1,000 AU (0.0%) across the 7,006 AU screening knee to 15,000–20,000 AU; (2) the local d < 300 pc Galactic Center–Anticenter compass anisotropy split; and (3) the reachable d <= 2.2 kpc Galactocentric environment step from Inner Disk to Outer Thick Disk / Lower Halo, with locked RUWE <= 1.20, parallax_over_error >= 20, and NSS == 0 quality cuts. BHEX Strong-Field Photon-Ring Test: Pre-registers the 2PN shadow radius R_sh = 2 * e * r_g = 5.4366 r_g from the exponential optical weave metric n(U) = exp(2U), A(U) = exp(-2U)—+4.63% wider than Schwarzschild General Relativity (3*sqrt(3) r_g = 5.1962 r_g) and strictly above General Relativity's all-spin upper ceiling. Epistemic Transparency: Openly documents both verified simulation benchmarks and remaining unsolved theoretical hurdles (micro-to-macro two-knot gravity emergence and full covariant CMB polarization evolution).

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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