Patterns and implications of land use and land cover change in King Sabata Dalindyebo Local Municipality (1994–2022): insights from remote sensing data

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a critical driver of socio-ecological transformation in rapidly urbanising regions. This study analyses multi-decadal LULC dynamics in King Sabata Dalindyebo (KSD) Local Municipality, South Africa, using Landsat imagery from 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2022. Supervised classification and accuracy assessment reveal significant expansion of built-up areas alongside declines in cropland and grassland. Overall accuracies exceeded 85%, with confusion matrices provided for transparency. The findings demonstrate that urban growth, informal settlement expansion, and land reform policies have reshaped the landscape, while ecological consequences include biodiversity loss, soil erosion, and reduced ecosystem services. By situating KSD within global comparative contexts, including South Asia and other low- and middle-income countries, the study highlights shared challenges of balancing urbanisation, agricultural decline, and ecological resilience. The novelty of this work lies in its integration of socio-economic drivers and ecological implications into a long-term LULC analysis, moving beyond descriptive mapping to provide actionable insights. Policy recommendations include strengthening land-use planning and zoning, supporting climate-smart agriculture, conserving grasslands, and institutionalising routine LULC monitoring within municipal governance. The study underscores the importance of combining remote sensing with socio-economic analysis to inform evidence-based land management in South Africa and comparable contexts.