Social and Demographic Security of Ukraine Under War Conditions and the Risks of Migration-Driven Human Capital Depletion

The relevance of the study is due to the scale of war migration and its long-term impact on the demographic reproduction, labor potential, and human capital of Ukraine. Migration losses become structural in nature and form risks for the socio-demographic security of the state. The article is aimed at studying the impact of war migration on the socio-demographic security of Ukraine by determining the structure of migration flows, assessing the main channels of human capital losses and substantiating scenarios for the return of the population. The methodological basis of the study is systemic and structural-functional approaches, conceptual-indicative modeling, the method of minimax normalization, scenario, statistical, comparative, and graphical analysis. The information base is formed on the basis of official data of international and national institutions on internal and external forced migration of Ukraine. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a model of the impact of war migration on socio-demographic security, which combines the intensity of migration processes, the loss of human capital, the potential for the return of the population, and the institutional capacity of its reintegration, as well as in the structuring of the main channels of human capital losses. According to the results of the study, it has been established that military migration forms a multi-channel structure of population movement, which includes internal displacement, external forced migration, pre-war labor mobility, and forced displacement of the population from the occupied territories. The selective nature of migration losses associated with the departure of the economically active population, youth, children and highly qualified specialists has been revealed, which creates long-term risks for the labor market, demographic reproduction, and restoration of human capital. The main conclusion is that the prospects for socio-demographic stability of Ukraine will be determined not only by the scale of migration losses, but also by the potential for return and reintegration of the population. Three scenarios have been identified: restorative repatriation, partial asymmetric repatriation, and structural non-return. The need to move from a predominantly compensatory response to demographic losses to a policy of return, reintegration, and circulation of human capital has been substantiated.