Multisensor Earth observations reveal divergent human and land-surface responses across wartime Ukraine
War-related changes in night-time illumination and vegetation are frequently assessed separately, leaving uncertain whether human and land-surface responses follow a common spatial pattern. This study examined 6,402 equal-area, 10 km grid cells across Ukraine using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night-time radiance, Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized burn ratio (NBR), and independently mapped conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Pre-war (2018–2021) and wartime (from 24 February 2022) observations defined changes in illumination and optical indices. Robust standardization and principal component analysis yielded human and land-surface response metrics; residuals from their national linear relationship represented relative divergence. The responses were nearly uncorrelated (Pearson’s r = −0.022). The highest conflict-exposure quintile showed the strongest decline in night-time illumination despite a positive mean land-surface response. Local conflict density explained limited variation in the human response (adjusted R2 = 0.034), whereas adding neighbouring exposure increased the land-response model’s adjusted R2 from 0.009 to 0.527. Residual spatial autocorrelation nevertheless remained high (Moran’s I = 0.727). These descriptive results indicate that night-time darkening and optical land-surface change capture distinct dimensions of wartime change rather than interchangeable indicators of conflict impact.
Authors
- Enner Alcântara (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7777-2119)
- José Roberto Mantovani (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7051-5304)
- Hulair Braga Carneiro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3970-3336)
- Paloma Hellen Pereira Eleuterio
- Renan Scopel Teixeira de Carvalho
- Viviane de Almeida Gonzales
- Ana Flávia Coura Parada
- Christopher de Araujo Leite da Silva
Institutions
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) (BR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Remote Sensing Letters
- Published
- 2026-11-03
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704x.2026.2758708
- Primary Topic
- Impact of Light on Environment and Health
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00