Multisensor Earth observations reveal divergent human and land-surface responses across wartime Ukraine

War-related changes in night-time illumination and vegetation are frequently assessed separately, leaving uncertain whether human and land-surface responses follow a common spatial pattern. This study examined 6,402 equal-area, 10 km grid cells across Ukraine using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night-time radiance, Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized burn ratio (NBR), and independently mapped conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Pre-war (2018–2021) and wartime (from 24 February 2022) observations defined changes in illumination and optical indices. Robust standardization and principal component analysis yielded human and land-surface response metrics; residuals from their national linear relationship represented relative divergence. The responses were nearly uncorrelated (Pearson’s r = −0.022). The highest conflict-exposure quintile showed the strongest decline in night-time illumination despite a positive mean land-surface response. Local conflict density explained limited variation in the human response (adjusted R2 = 0.034), whereas adding neighbouring exposure increased the land-response model’s adjusted R2 from 0.009 to 0.527. Residual spatial autocorrelation nevertheless remained high (Moran’s I = 0.727). These descriptive results indicate that night-time darkening and optical land-surface change capture distinct dimensions of wartime change rather than interchangeable indicators of conflict impact.

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Publication Details

Journal
Remote Sensing Letters
Published
2026-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704x.2026.2758708
Primary Topic
Impact of Light on Environment and Health
Type
article
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article

Multisensor Earth observations reveal divergent human and land-surface responses across wartime Ukraine

Enner Alcântara, José Roberto Mantovani, Hulair Braga Carneiro, Paloma Hellen Pereira Eleuterio et al.
Remote Sensing Letters
Impact of Light on Environment and Health
article

Multisensor Earth observations reveal divergent human and land-surface responses across wartime Ukraine

Enner Alcântara, José Roberto Mantovani, Hulair Braga Carneiro, Paloma Hellen Pereira Eleuterio, Renan Scopel Teixeira de Carvalho, Viviane de Almeida Gonzales, Ana Flávia Coura Parada, Christopher de Araujo Leite da Silva
article en

Abstract

War-related changes in night-time illumination and vegetation are frequently assessed separately, leaving uncertain whether human and land-surface responses follow a common spatial pattern. This study examined 6,402 equal-area, 10 km grid cells across Ukraine using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night-time radiance, Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized burn ratio (NBR), and independently mapped conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Pre-war (2018–2021) and wartime (from 24 February 2022) observations defined changes in illumination and optical indices. Robust standardization and principal component analysis yielded human and land-surface response metrics; residuals from their national linear relationship represented relative divergence. The responses were nearly uncorrelated (Pearson’s r = −0.022). The highest conflict-exposure quintile showed the strongest decline in night-time illumination despite a positive mean land-surface response. Local conflict density explained limited variation in the human response (adjusted R2 = 0.034), whereas adding neighbouring exposure increased the land-response model’s adjusted R2 from 0.009 to 0.527. Residual spatial autocorrelation nevertheless remained high (Moran’s I = 0.727). These descriptive results indicate that night-time darkening and optical land-surface change capture distinct dimensions of wartime change rather than interchangeable indicators of conflict impact.

Remote Sensing LettersVol. 17(12)
Universidade de São Paulo (BR), Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) (BR)
Openalex Percentile: Top 20%
Impact of Light on Environment and Health
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