Construction and Empirical Study of a Risk Assessment System for the Contractual Control Model in Chinese Private Higher Education

The classified management reform has transformed the risks of the contractual control (variable interest entity, VIE) model in Chinese private higher education from a single compliance risk into a systemic risk. Drawing on risk management and educational governance theories, this study constructs a risk assessment system comprising five dimensions—legal compliance, corporate governance effectiveness, financial health, operational robustness, and social benefit realization—and fifteen indicators, selected from twenty-two candidates through two rounds of Delphi consultation. The analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are applied, supplemented by a veto rule and a dual early-warning mechanism. An assessment of a education group (Group X) yields a composite score of 74.66, rated relatively low risk (borderline) under the weighted criterion but moderate risk under a non-compensatory pessimistic criterion, with the social benefit dimension triggering a specific early warning. A retrospective assessment of a distressed group (Group Y) shows that the system issued a Level-3 warning two years before risks materialized, demonstrating discriminant validity. A tiered, coordinated governance path for regulators, sponsors, and investors is accordingly proposed.