Ethiopia's Diplomatic Hurdles with Gulf Countries: Trends, Factors and Implications on Regional Security Dynamics

This research analyses Ethiopia’s diplomatic challenges with the Gulf States in the context of the Red Sea’s rising strategic importance. Using qualitative methods—including expert interviews and the review and analysis of policy documents—the study examines the underlying causes of diplomatic hurdle in these relations. Key sources of tension include historical rivalries, religious influences, economic competition, and disputes over water security, divergent political outlooks, and the role of external actors. In the contemporary period, these factors are compounded by new pressures. Ethiopia’s strained relations with Eritrea affect its access to regional maritime networks, while Gulf investments in agriculture, energy and infrastructure create both opportunities and concerns regarding sovereignty and equitable resource distribution. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has further intensified water-security anxieties across the Nile Basin, despite Addis Ababa’s assurances. Likewise, intensifying global rivalries in the Red Sea have contributed to proxy conflicts and heightened maritime security risks and limiting Ethiopia’s strategic choices. The study argues that Ethiopia should pursue a proactive but carefully balanced diplomatic approach toward the Gulf States. By addressing historical factors, managing regional economic interests and engaging effectively in collective security initiatives, Ethiopia can protect its national interests while contributing to resilient stability in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region.