Psychological Need Satisfaction, Self-Determined Motivation, Burnout, and Dropout Intention in Korean Water Polo Athletes: A Cross-Sectional Structural Equation Model

Background/Objectives: Grounded in Self-Determination Theory, this cross-sectional study examined associations among basic psychological need satisfaction, self-determined motivation, athlete burnout, and dropout intention in Korean water polo athletes. Methods: High-school, collegiate, and general-level players (n = 173; 162 male) completed online questionnaires; the outcome was dropout intention, not observed dropout. Structural equation modeling with bias-corrected bootstrapping and sensitivity analyses was conducted. Results: Need satisfaction was positively associated with self-determined motivation, both were negatively associated with burnout, and burnout was strongly associated with dropout intention (β = 0.794), whereas direct paths to it were not significant. Need satisfaction was indirectly associated with dropout intention via burnout alone and sequentially via motivation and burnout (B = −0.313, 95% BC CI [−0.667, −0.123]). Burnout and dropout intention overlapped substantially (latent r = 0.852; Fornell–Larcker criterion not met), although the association remained strong without sport devaluation (β = 0.663). The sequential association reflected mainly amotivation and was not significant with a latent autonomous-motivation factor. Conclusions: Burnout-related experiences, particularly sport devaluation, were strongly associated with dropout intention, but discriminant validity was not conclusively established. The findings highlight amotivation rather than a general protective role of autonomous motivation; longitudinal research is needed.