Supply Chain Analysis of Mustard in Sri Ganganagar District of Rajasthan, India: Marketing Channels, Price Spread, Efficiency and an ARIMA Forecast of Production and Productivity

Background: Mustard is an important oilseed crop in irrigated north-western Rajasthan, where marketing arrangements influence the prices received by growers. Aims: To map the mustard supply chain of Sri Ganganagar district, estimate channel-wise price spread and marketing efficiency, forecast production and productivity, and prioritise grower constraints. Study Design: Cross-sectional field survey using a linked farmer–intermediary schedule, combined with univariate time-series analysis of published secondary data. Place and Duration of Study: Sri Ganganagar district, Rajasthan, India, during the rabi mustard marketing season 2025-26. Methodology: One hundred and twenty growers (multistage sampling, six blocks) and 40 intermediaries (ten per channel, selected using purposive and snowball sampling) were interviewed. Price spread, marketing cost, margin, producer’s share and marketing efficiency were computed following Acharya’s framework; constraints were ranked by the Garrett Ranking Technique and cross-checked by the Rank-Based Quotient (RBQ). An ARIMA model was fitted to the 2000-01 to 2024-25 Rajasthan and all-India series and validated on a five-year hold-out sample. Results: Four channels were identified. The regulated market was the most-used route (36.67%), but the village-trader and commission-agent routes together accounted for 50.83% of growers, while the direct farmer–processor route was used by only 12.50%. Price spread narrowed from Rs 743/q in Channel I to Rs 388/q in Channel IV, the producer’s share rose from 89.1% to 94.2%, and marketing efficiency from 8.17 to 14.21. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) with drift was adequate for all series (Ljung–Box P = .55 and P = .80; hold-out MAPE 14.5% and 7.0%) and projects state productivity to reach 1,766 kg/ha by 2029-30. Garrett and RBQ gave an identical ranking: price volatility first (64.25; RBQ 90.00), lack of storage second (54.90; 75.00). Conclusion: Production is robust and projected to grow, yet about half the growers market through the least efficient channels for reasons of convenience and liquidity. Raising grower income depends less on further yield gains than on price stabilisation, warehouse-receipt-linked storage, and aggregation that opens the shorter channels to small growers.