Bioclimatic Design Meets Demographic and Industrial Change: A Multi-Criteria Assessment of Green Housing Feasibility in Mexico City, Tabasco, and Yucatán

Green housing strategies are often selected based on climate-responsive principles or ranked through additive indicators, even when deficient infrastructure or material hazards should preclude deployment. This study develops a reproducible, non-compensatory regional screening framework for Mexico City, Tabasco, and Yucatán. The framework is a conceptual pre-feasibility instrument based on public secondary data; it is not a building certification, a parcel-level decision model, or a validated energy simulation. Official demographic, housing, climate, economics, labor, market, and industrial corridor evidence is integrated through transparent ordinal rules and veto conditions. Robustness was examined by varying every quantitative threshold by ±20% and by testing the ecological association between the 2024 housing backlog rate and basic service deprivation across Mexico’s 32 federal entities. The association was strong (Pearson r = 0.816, p < 0.001; Spearman ρ = 0.693, p < 0.001), while the three portfolio classes remained unchanged under the sensitivity test. In the focal cases, housing backlog affected 6.01% of the housing stock in Mexico City, 63.78% in Tabasco, and 13.94% in Yucatán; basic service deprivation affected 5.5%, 43.8%, and 30.1% of the respective populations. The resulting regional propositions are targeted infill and retrofit in Mexico City, safeguarded flood-resilient pilots in Tabasco, and infrastructure-linked growth in Yucatán. An explicit indicator-to-response matrix, a project baseline protocol, a financial screening equation, a stakeholder validation pathway, and post-occupancy KPIs establish the evidence required before investment. Economic opportunity is treated as enabling evidence, whereas essential services and material hazards retain veto power.