The Impact of U.S. Tariff Barriers on the Global Solar PV Exports from China Under Digitalization

As digitalization reshapes global value chains and trade patterns, China’s solar photovoltaic (PV) exports face growing challenges from trade protectionism, particularly U.S. tariff barriers. Despite the strategic importance of solar PV products for the global low-carbon transition, the impact of U.S. tariffs on China’s PV trade under digitalized conditions remains insufficiently understood. Using panel data from 2007 to 2024, this study employs Difference-in-Difference (DID) methods to examine how U.S. tariff barriers influence China’s solar PV exports and the underlying adjustment mechanisms. The results indicate that (1) U.S. tariff measures imposed on global trading partners significantly reduced China’s solar PV exports, with substantial regional heterogeneity; (2) amid rising external policy uncertainty and accelerating global digitalization, China’s solar PV export structure has undergone significant adjustment, with exports increasingly directed toward countries with mature and stable PV markets; and (3) global trade policy shocks are contributing to structural adjustments in China’s solar PV export markets. Overall, the findings offer empirically grounded evidence and policy insights for optimizing China’s solar PV export structure and responding to trade barriers.