Expanding incentive programs to deliver large-scale reforestation: prospects from the southeastern United States

Reforestation is widely promoted as a scalable nature‑based climate solution. Its effectiveness, however, depends on the feasibility of expanding existing or creating similar programs to deliver tree planting at a massive scale. This study examines federal and state cost-share programs, long-standing public incentive mechanisms supporting private-land reforestation in the southeastern United States, and their potential contribution to expanding reforestation efforts. Using publicly available data and agency records, we estimated annual acres planted, program budgets, and cost per acre for major federal and state reforestation programs across ten southeastern states as of 2023. Estimates were scaled to assess the cost and feasibility of meeting a range of national and international reforestation targets, including policy pledges and published scientific targets. The analyzed programs supported approximately 350,000 acres (141,700 hectares) of tree planting annually at an average cost of $131 per acre ($324 per hectare) for state programs and $165 per acre ($408 per hectare) for federal programs. While this capacity could contribute to modest reforestation pledges, such as the U.S. chapter’s 2.8 million-acre (1.1 million hectares) commitment under the 1t.org initiative, it falls short of more ambitious national targets, with current planting rates projected to achieve only 1.6% of the 330 million-acre (134 million hectares) restoration target outlined in the World Resources Institute (WRI) CarbonShot Report by 2040. Achieving these goals will likely require planting capacity and funding increases of hundreds to thousands of percent, highlighting a significant implementation gap. The findings identify the investment magnitude, coordination, and complementary mechanisms beyond current cost‑share programs that might be needed to achieve large‑scale reforestation in the U.S.