Enhancing Operational Flexibility of Island Wind–Solar Systems Under Climate Disturbances: A Feedback-Based Adaptive Governance Perspective

Island power systems are highly exposed to climate disturbances, while conventional energy planning often treats governance arrangements as exogenous conditions and gives limited attention to their role in long-term system resilience. This study develops a system dynamics model to examine how technological improvement and adaptive governance affect the long-term performance of an island clean-energy system under alternative climate-stress conditions. The model contains four state variables: installed capacity, grid-integration capacity, cumulative climate-induced capacity loss, and institutional learning. Publicly available energy, disaster, recovery, and policy information from Hainan, China, is used to inform historical trend reproduction, model assumptions, and scenario design. Five scenarios are evaluated through 2050, including a baseline scenario, a stylized high-climate-stress scenario, a technology-only scenario, a governance-feedback scenario, and a combined technology-and-governance scenario. Under the high-climate-stress scenario, the installed-capacity index decreases by 23.5% relative to the baseline trajectory, while LPSP increases from 2.5% to 5.8% and the cumulative climate-loss index rises from 100 to 187. The governance-feedback scenario reduces LPSP to 3.1% and the cumulative climate-loss index to 132, whereas the combined scenario further improves these indicators to 2.8% and 124, respectively. Relative to the technology-only scenario S3, the combined technology-and-governance scenario S5 further reduces the cumulative climate-loss index by approximately 20.5% and LPSP by 33.3%. These scenario results suggest that governance-oriented feedback can complement technological measures by strengthening investment responsiveness, institutional learning, and post-disturbance recovery. The proposed framework provides a feedback-based adaptive governance perspective for examining climate resilience in island clean-energy systems.