Moniliophthora roreri in Cacao: An Evidence-Calibrated Synthesis from Population Biology and Molecular Pathogenicity to Epidemiology and Adaptive Disease Management

Frosty pod rot (FPR), caused by the basidiomycete Moniliophthora roreri, remains a major constraint to cacao production in the Neotropics and a biosecurity concern where the pathogen is absent. This critical narrative review appraises 69 sources spanning reproductive biology, infection-stage transitions, population genomics, molecular pathogenicity, diagnostics, epidemiology, resistance and management, calibrating recurrent claims against the directness and reproducibility of their evidence. The evidence supports predominantly clonal reproduction, marked geographical structure, continued genome evolution and prolonged hidden colonisation. It does not support a uniquely resolved geographical origin, a correspondence between genetic structure and pathogenic phenotype, or the inference of epidemic risk from pathogen DNA alone, and extensive candidate secreted-protein and carbohydrate-active enzyme (CAZyme) repertoires remain largely without causal validation. We integrate these domains into an evidence-calibrated causal framework linking pathogen diversity, molecular processes, infection and transmission traits, epidemic behaviour and adaptive management and identify epidemiological resistance and dynamic sentinel-isolate panels as priorities for advancing predictive and durable FPR management.