BETWEEN AMBITION AND ARITHMETIC: INDIA'S ENERGY FUTURE IN THE LIGHT OF MoSPI STATISTICS

Abstract India's energy system grew quickly between 2020-21 and 2024-25, and most of that growth still ran on coal. This article reads the five most recent editions of Energy Statistics India, published by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) from 2022 to 2026, as a single record. It traces reserves, production, trade, consumption and the fuel mix over that period. Total primary energy supply rose from 675,395 kilotonnes of oil equivalent (KToE) in 2015-16 to 932,816 KToE in 2024-25. Coal's share of that supply stayed close to 59 per cent. Coal output passed one billion tonnes for the first time in 2024-25. Domestic crude oil output fell for a decade, and India imported about 89 per cent of its crude needs. Renewable sources other than large hydro made up 36 per cent of utility generating capacity by March 2025, but only 13 per cent of electricity generated. Overall import dependence held at around 40 per cent. The article argues that India is adding clean capacity faster than it is displacing fossil energy, so the near-term transition is additive rather than substitutive. It also sets out problems that anyone using the series should know about: provisional figures are revised in later editions, the coal conversion factors changed in the 2024 edition, and the GDP base year changed in the 2026 edition. All three affect comparisons across editions. Keeping the reports' own statements separate from the author's interpretation, and reading the results against the modelling and political-economy literature on India's transition, the article discusses what the data imply for oil security, coal's long tail, grid integration and the 2030 non-fossil targets. It also draws on the 2026 report of MoSPI's Expert Committee on Energy Statistics, which finds that the official energy balance leaves out biofuels and waste, and that ministries publish figures for coal calorific values and per capita electricity using different methodologies.