Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Metal Theft in Mthatha, South Africa: An Analysis of Police-Reported Incidents

This study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of metal theft in Mthatha, South Africa, through an analysis of police-reported incidents, using a quantitative research design. Official police records from Mthatha Central Police Station covering a one-year period were analyzed to identify the patterns, frequency, and spatial distribution of metal theft incidents. The dataset included variables such as type of metal stolen, location, and time of occurrence. Data were cleaned, standardized, and categorized before analysis to ensure reliability and comparability. Descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, and geospatial mapping using GIS including Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), Local Moran’s I, and Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis, were applied to examine temporal and spatial trends. The findings indicate that copper pipes (39.4%) and electrical cables (32.7%) were the most frequently stolen materials. Temporal analysis indicated that 56.3% of incidents with valid time-of-day information occurred at night. Spatial analysis revealed an uneven geographical distribution, with concentrations of reported incidents within and around Mthatha’s urban center. The study concludes that metal theft exhibits distinct spatial, temporal, and target-specific patterns that can inform place-based crime prevention strategies. Strengthening infrastructure protection, targeted policing, inter-agency coordination, and scrap metal transaction traceability may contribute to reducing infrastructure-related theft and enhancing sustainable urban governance and resilience.